Winners Are People Who Don't Lose

Despite rumours you made have heard, I am not a man from the future. But I do like to act like it sometimes, like when I try to predict the Oscar winners:

Best Cinematography: Robert Elswit, 'Good Night, And Good Luck'

I don't really know how cinematographers go about voting, if the politics that plague the other categories figure in. I'm guessing not, cinematographers seem like a more grizzled crowd. But I hope Elswit wins, not only for the beautiful black and white photography in 'Good Night', not to mention the stuff he did in 'Syriana' this year too, but also for his career so far, especially for the stuff he did with Paul Thomas Anderson. I still watch 'Punch Drunk Love', and pick out new things that they did. But Rodrigo Prieto probably has a good chance of pulling it out for 'Brokeback'.

Best Screenplay, Adapted: Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, 'Brokeback Mountain'

Two of the other nominees here ('The Constant Gardener', 'A History Of Violence'') seem to have been other wise deserted by the academy, and 'Munich' seems to have been nominated just because it had to, which leaves it between 'Capote' and 'Brokeback', and I think writers would much rather give an award to a guy who has been one of the best American writers for the last 40 years rather than that guy from "Judging Amy' who wrote his first screenplay on whim. That sounded meaner than I meant it to - I like Dan Futterman, and I like 'Capote', but 'Brokeback' was great, and McMurtry is way over due for writing 'The Last Picture Show'. So they'll win. That's what I was gettng at.

Best Screenplay, Original: Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco, 'Crash'

My least favorite film nominated in this category, but people really seem to like this movie, and the screenplay category is where they usually honor otherwise overlooked movies.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Michelle Williams, 'Brokeback Mountain'

This is a tough one to call, like I said before, but I think they'll want to give 'Brokeback' an acting award, and this looks the place to do it. Rachel Weisz has just as good a chance winning this, having won the Globe and the SAG, and either way, I'm happy.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Matt Dillon, 'Crash'

Clooney is the guy to beat in this one, since they obviously wanted to honor him this year, and he won't win in any of the other categories he's up for. But if anyone can beat him, it's Dillon, who has the nice, comeback kid angle, which might trump Clooney's 'Hollywood Golden Boy' angle. What I'm saying, is that there are angles in play.

Best Actress in a Leading Role: Reese Witherspoon, 'Walk The Line'

She's won all the awards coming into this one, and she'll probably take this one too. Plus, she sings! Felicity Huffman is the only one who could give her trouble here, but I doubt enough people saw 'Transamerica' for her to be a threat.

Best Actor in a Leading Role: Philip Seymour Hoffman, 'Capote'

I was kind of against Hoffman until last night when I finally saw 'Capote', since I like Heath Ledger, and the way he beautifully underplayed his character in 'Brokeback'. I thought Hoffman was going to be doing big, showy, acting, which the Academy usually goes for, but I was really surprised by how restrained he was, especially considering he was playing a real guy who was known for being over the top. I admit that it felt much more like acting than Ledger, but I think more of that is that I've seen Hoffman in more roles than Ledger, and that he was playing a real person. With that in mind, as much as I loved Ledger and would like to see him win, I'm fine with seeing Hoffman win, since he probably will.

Best Director: Ang Lee, 'Brokeback Mountain'

Ang Lee has been making Oscar nominated films for the last 15 years or so, and he made the most nominated film of the year, so, I think its a fair bet that he'll finally get an Oscar.

Best Picture: 'Brokeback Mountain'

After seeing 'Capote' last night, I saw all the best picture nominees. It was really exciting for me, like the day I collected all the Pokemon (even that secret 151st Pokemon. That's how awesome it was). And, I honestly think that 'Brokeback' was the best picture of the year, at least out of the ones nominated here. It struck the best mix of characters and story, and just every aspect of it was incredibly well done. So, yeah.

Could I be right? I might. Ignore the fact that that was a rhyme. You're better than that.